Thursday, January 22, 2009

Bursting bubbles

The economy has gone through multiple bubbles from the housing market, to mortgage funds, to gasoline futures and other commodities, to the stock market. Where do we sit now? The bubbles have popped and there does not appear to be any bubbles left to burst.

In the past several years, everything has gone up in price. Houses in particular have gone up a lot. Salaries have not gone up much. Sure, if you're the CEO of a company, you can squeeze the employees and divert part of their pay increase into your pocket, but the majority of people have not seen much of any increase in their salary. Because housing prices were going up, the only way to afford a house was to use lower interest rates or loans that were interest only or even those that required a payment less than the interest of the loan.

So you have a system where salaries are stagnant, housing is going up, gas is going up, food is going up and no one was expecting a crash? Ok, there were a few people that saw it coming, but not many.

In the end, this is probably good for the country. Making money by shifting money around is not a good way for a country to stay wealthy. People need to produce things.

Housing and gas prices have come down and that is good for most people (unless you bought a house near the peak). Other prices have come down too. Some people will suffer, mostly those who were not the cause of the bubbles.

In the end, it's a good thing. Some people will take heed and see their dependence on oil and switch to more efficient cars. Some people will look at smaller houses or shorten their commute. Hopefully, people will realize that you can't just make easy money. Sooner or later it becomes a bubble and pops.

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