Thursday, January 22, 2009

Russia, Iran, Venezuela

So you have three oil producers in the world that don't like the US and just absolutely love to watch the price of oil go up and up. The money was rolling in and they wanted the price to go higher and higher it went.

And then it popped and went down and down and down.

People never learn a few rules about prices and parasites.

First, if the price goes up, people use less. Maybe not at first, but they will use less. In fact, the price has come down a bit now and we're still using less. These countries need a high price of oil to pay for the social structures they've built in the country. Now the price is lower than it needs to be to support that structure.

Secondly, parasites live off a healthy host. It is in their interest to make sure the host stays healthy so that the parasite benefits. The parasite takes only enough so that the host does not die. This is one reason why viruses become less lethal over time. If a virus kills the host, the virus cannot spread. The virus must infect the host causing minimal damage so that the virus can move to the next host. Ebola - bad virus. The cold - generally a better virus.

These countries were bad parasites. While they produce a product (oil) that is needed by the healthy industrial countries, they pushed for increases in the cost of oil which helped contribute to the economic sickness. And now there's an additional push for energy efficiency and alternatives which is going to make them less virulent in the future.

Bursting bubbles

The economy has gone through multiple bubbles from the housing market, to mortgage funds, to gasoline futures and other commodities, to the stock market. Where do we sit now? The bubbles have popped and there does not appear to be any bubbles left to burst.

In the past several years, everything has gone up in price. Houses in particular have gone up a lot. Salaries have not gone up much. Sure, if you're the CEO of a company, you can squeeze the employees and divert part of their pay increase into your pocket, but the majority of people have not seen much of any increase in their salary. Because housing prices were going up, the only way to afford a house was to use lower interest rates or loans that were interest only or even those that required a payment less than the interest of the loan.

So you have a system where salaries are stagnant, housing is going up, gas is going up, food is going up and no one was expecting a crash? Ok, there were a few people that saw it coming, but not many.

In the end, this is probably good for the country. Making money by shifting money around is not a good way for a country to stay wealthy. People need to produce things.

Housing and gas prices have come down and that is good for most people (unless you bought a house near the peak). Other prices have come down too. Some people will suffer, mostly those who were not the cause of the bubbles.

In the end, it's a good thing. Some people will take heed and see their dependence on oil and switch to more efficient cars. Some people will look at smaller houses or shorten their commute. Hopefully, people will realize that you can't just make easy money. Sooner or later it becomes a bubble and pops.